The adjacent chart pretty much makes a turkey mockery of accelerating global warming fears. It's simply not flying happening.
While the climate science establishment continues its costly and misallocated efforts against "catastrophic" global warming, the empirical evidence indicates the worlds' elites are pursuing a laughably ludicrous Don Quixote quest against an imaginary climate-evil.
Like so many Thanksgivings of the past, those on the 'quest' have piously announced civilization's reaching its 'last chance' point of saving itself from climate doomsday. But all of these Turkeynado Sharknado-like prophecies that the end-is-near have proven to be pure anti-science fiction.
At some point, we can hope some sanity returns to the climate science anti-CO2 Quixote brotherhood of warriors. But in the meantime, what does the actual climate science say?
Well, this chart is just brutally frank: the fast growth of atmospheric CO2 levels (the black dots) have not exactly been the robust evil foe the elite establishment has fixated on.
As the chart depicts, the CO2 impact on either short (red curve) or long-term (pink curve) rapid global temperature acceleration appears to be non-existent versus the "consensus" predictions. And the blue-dash curve reveals the rather turkey-like impact on the 36-month average of absolute global temperatures.
Indeed, global temperatures have increased since 1950. But the scientific reality is that the chart confirms a steady global warming that has been taking place since the end of the Little Ice Age (late 1700s) - well before the influx of the giant CO2 emissions from the industrial/consumer era. The chart clearly shows a long history of frequent periods of rapidly increasing temperatures, then to be always followed by a significant deceleration.
Examine the chart's most recent period, from December 1996 through October 2015. The periods of both rapid temperature increases and decreases are evident, just as they existed since instrumental recording of temperatures first began.
Terrified by global warming doomsday? Not so much anymore, it would seem.
Suffice it to say, Americans are no longer impressed by the claims of government and celebrity elites. Fully 97% now reject the unreal turkey-esque predictions of climate change disasters.
And the American public is not alone. The global masses join Americans in their low assessment of the elites' unscientific climate calamities.
As the public has learned, the empirical evidence supports neither the man-made climate change disaster narrative nor the CO2-reducing solutions proposed, which have been seriously debunked.
One last 'chance' - look at the chart, are you still terrified this Thanksgiving? How about that wacky college-aged, censorship-loving, millennial niece gnawing on that turkey wing next to you?
Note: Excel used to calculate the 3-year absolute temperature and CO2 level averages; also used to calculate the moving 36-month and 360-month per century acceleration/deceleration trends (Excel slope function) as depicted on chart; the absolute temps calculated using the HadCRUT4 month anomalies and NOAA's monthly global mean temperature estimates; and, the 3-year average beginning value for CO2 was offset to a zero starting place. Temperature sources used: here and here. CO2 sources used: here (March 1958-October 2015) and here (used annual historical levels for each month of the given year, from January 1850 to February 1958).
This week is the 40th anniversary of the sinking of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald during a Lake Superior gale. It was a huge Great Lakes iron-ore freighter known as the Titanic of the Great Lakes with a workhorse record; and only 17-years of service at the time of her plunge to the bottom of the lake.
She went down in the deep waters of Lake Superior in the early evening hours of November 10, 1975 with 29 lives. Her fast sinking was so exceptional for a huge ship that it was subsequently celebrated by a very popular song.
That unexpected and violent storm is now forever known for sinking the largest ship ever, on the Great Lakes.
One could certainly surmise that the low CO2 levels (less than 350ppm) during that time may have contributed to this tragedy. She was battered by both 35-foot waves and near hurricane level winds - an extreme, rare weather event that suggests low-CO2 climate change at work.
No other gigantic ship has sunk on the Great Lakes since those low CO2 levels, doncha know.
The decade of the 70's were exceptional for its extreme and severe weather events that plagued the globe during the regime of low atmospheric CO2. Climate scientists and other experts at the time debated as to the causes, but the science remained unsettled as to why the weather extremes had become so violent and frequent during that specific decade.
Climate change extreme weather events due to low CO2 (1970-79):
Extreme climate/weather record charts.
Government-funded scientists, the Green's anti-CO2 activists and the mainstream media-alarmists have all claimed that the current drought being suffered by the US west coast is the extreme climate change Americans have never experienced before.
They claim it is due to human CO2 emissions of the modern industrial and consumer civilization.
Yet severe droughts have been part and parcel of the world's climate since humans started recording severe weather events. Across the globe, and the US, there is no shortage of historical drought reports and other extreme climate conditions.
More specifically, as the images below attest, drought extremes in the US have been extensively documented by NOAA since the 1900s, with most taking place well before the global 350ppm CO2 atmospheric level was commonplace.
For a perspective, the October 2015 drought conditions (top-left image) have often been exceeded by some kick-ass October drought conditions in the past. (click on any image to enlarge)
Simply put, the climate has always been changing, impacting large geographical regions at any given time. As the scientific empirical evidence makes clear, a changing climate is not unusual, and most definitely is not solely due to human CO2 emissions.
For someone to claim otherwise is literally anti-scientific.
The climate change fear-mongering generated by government-related persons and agencies has recently reached peak levels, with claims that are a mixture of absurd and just plain silly when compared to the empirical scientific evidence.
Such claims include the meme that rising global CO2 has caused accelerating, rapid US warming; that droughts are destroying all of our food crops; that more frequent and stronger weather disasters from warmer temperatures are wreaking untold harm; that global warming will shorten/threaten US life spans; that ever expanding wildfires are consuming our forests; and etc., etc., etc.
(One indeed wonders why so many Americans can't wait to retire to the tropical and warmer climates that Hawaii, Florida, Arizona and S. California offer if warm temperatures are so harmful and deadly.)
With all that said, the U.S. has the best weather and climate measurement capabilities in the world, with observations from a wide geographical dispersion and a extensive range of micro-climates, be it tropical islands or Arctic tundra. The most extensive and complete empirical evidence comes from the continental U.S., which the vast majority of the American population resides.
Instead of believing the promoters of doomsday screams about every single impending weather event being the next civilization-busting disaster, or the journo/pundits' propensity to shout about the hottest hour, the hottest day, week, month, summer and/or hottest year stats (take your pick) ad nauseum, it might be best to reflect on what the American public has realized about long-term climate change doomsday from the empirical evidence - it's a very thin nothing-burger.
To the empirical evidence.
The adjacent chart depicts several long-term climate record trends of 10-year averages (US hurricane landfalls, forest fire acres, drought, precipitation, maximum and average temperatures). The chart also includes the following 10-year average trends: atmospheric CO2 levels; the U.S. corn yield; and, the U.S. life expectancy trend from decadal census information.
As can be seen, the CO2 growth trend has been truly remarkable, only exceeded by the exceptional trend for corn yields (by the way, other agricultural crops also possess exceptional yield trends). And the increasing life expectancy trend for Americans is none too shabby either.
In contrast, the charts reveal the truly unexceptional, unremarkable long-term trends for any climate/weather attribute previously predicted to worsen from the modern era's CO2-induced climate change.
These fitted curve trends have yawn-inducing characteristics, indicating CO2 from fossil fuel combustion is spectacularly not the powerful greenhouse gas emission that experts conjectured about.
Conclusion: Although short-term variation extremes in weather attributes and incidents can be large and at times awe-inspiring, they are not climate change. Long-term climate change since the Little Ice Age has been dominated by a very slow warming, which the chart's 'average' and 'maximum' temperature trends reveal. The long-term climate change across the continental U.S. as represented by the precipitation, hurricane landfall events and drought are much more difficult to discern from their respective fitted trends (objectively, they are rather climatically insignificant overall). Forest fire acres burned has had an uptick in recent years (for bureaucratic reasons) but is vastly below levels reached in the early 20th century. All in all, human CO2 combustion emissions are directly linked to the great agricultural prosperity and vastly improved well being of the American citizen over the past century, much to the chagrin of doomsday cultists - whether yesteryear's or today's.
In other words, the politicos and bureaucrats predictions of gloom, doom and disasters were wrong, significantly.
Notes: Excel used to produce chart's fitted 2nd order trends. Sources of datasets used for chart can be found by downloading this Excel spreadsheet from MS OneDrive. For the temperature, precipitation and drought (PHDI) curves, 9-month YTD through September measurements from NOAA were used. CO2 levels used for its trend curve represents the September ppm value for each year. Corn yields represent the 'commodity and market' year reported. Both corn and CO2 had beginning values set to '10' in order that they would fit on a '0' to '150' y-axis (did not affect linear trends of either). Hurricane US landfalls observations used represent a per year average from the given decade's count of events. Life expectancy data are U.S. decadal averages for female/male and all races.
Western European elites have earned a reputation as not being the brightest bulbs on planet Earth. For most Americans, that was confirmed when in 2009 the Nobel committee awarded newly-elected President Obama the Nobel Peace Prize - prior to even a single accomplishment.
As always seems to happen, the elites of Europe have finally come to their rational senses, again recognizing that emotional childish infatuations neither make-the-man nor deliver good policies.
Case in point: After years of the failed Obama policies, the Germans, who have this unfortunate tendency to become infatuated with leaders of questionable qualities, now list Obama as the 5th worst Nobel Peace Prize recipient.
That's right, one of the worst ever.
Good news for Obama, though. Germans now believe those climate-doomsday cult proponents, Al Gore and Rajendra Pachauri, rank as the 3rd worst recipients.
Gore, former V.P. of the U.S., and Pachauri, former chief of the UN's IPCC committee, once cult darlings, are being dismissed as irrelevant. And these two have been instrumental in making sure that the general public no longer is enamored with the doomsday anti-CO2 rhetoric. In fact, Germans are now burning even more dirty coal to meet their energy needs.
So, here's one to ponder: In order to get back in the EU elites' good graces, will Obama order a drone strike on the Gore/Pachauri clown-duo at the Paris COP21 climate conference?
Note: Source of Obama and drone image.
Junkscience.com has recently contacted those universities allowing staff members to claim they had won the Nobel Peace Prize. So far, in all cases, it has exclusively involved climate alarmists making the false award claims.
Universities, to their credit, have removed or modified the claims once informed.
Hmmm...maybe universities should improve their due diligence methodology or at least do adequate background checks on awards and degrees. Posting bogus information regarding their staff is likely some form of false advertising, no?
And as is often the case, not a single mainstream media outlet discovered the institutional misrepresentation.
As the site 'Not A Lot of People Know That' reports, extreme and severe rainfall (i.e. precipitation) trend has not increased in Holland, when viewed from a decadal perspective.
The adjacent chart depicts the distribution of the top 50 DeBilt, Holland rainfall events while atmospheric CO2 levels increased over the decades. (Go here to view maximum hourly precipitation incidents versus global cumulative CO2 emission tonnes since 1950.)
For the record, on any given hour during any given day, someplace in the world is likely to be experiencing an extreme weather event. But as this Holland dataset confirms, the actual empirical global and regional trends of a climatic shift of ever more severe weather events do not support the alarmists' predictions; the irrational fears of more frequent/larger weather disasters as a result of CO2 or global/regional "warming" is unjustified, per the scientific evidence.
And it is indisputable that hundreds of media outlets have extensively documented over the past century that weather catastrophes have always been a normal climate occurrence, regardless of greenhouse gas emissions.
Note: 'C3' used monthly CO2 levels from NOAA and superimposed the CO2 curve on the above chart.
Trusting the authorities and experts in the modern medical health and research fields has recently proven to be very dangerous to one's health, and costly to society.
Readers familiar with the ins-and-outs of climate science are well aware that incidents like Climategate proved that government scientists and bureaucrats, especially those with an agenda, could not be trusted to inform the public honestly.
Unfortunately for health patients, they too have blindly trusted for decades. They have trusted the advice of doctors and pharmaceutical experts claiming a "consensus" and the "settled" science that powerful statin medications must be taken to heal cardiovascular disease and prevent heart attacks.
Yet after decades of trust, the public is now learning that stains have a high potential of producing faster aging and undesirable brain effects. From the latest research:
"Statins make regular users become older faster, leaving them open to long-term mental and physical decline, according to disturbing new research...Scientists have found the heart disease drug badly affects our stem cells, the internal medical system which repairs damage to our bodies and protects us from muscle and joint pain as well as memory loss."
And it's not like the doctors and health experts had not been told that statins were proving to be dangerous. The patient anecdotal reports and medical research literature are littered with past reports of a wide variety of negative side effects that this class of pharmaceuticals has been associated with.
Despite all the damning statin evidence coming forth, the expert medical elites, with their anti-science agenda (which essentially amounted to accepting the non-evidence based claims from both pharma experts and many conflicted pharma-funded health organizations that these drugs were safe), kept pushing for the public's statin consumption to increase.
As we have stated before, it's not only the climate science advocates and their research that can't be trusted.
Simply stated: "Trust No One" and especially elites and experts with an agenda.
Of course, when the alarmists uttered these claims, they were based on the hurricane computer models that forecast Joaquin's path would strike the East Coast of the U.S. Fortunately for the coastal residents, the climate change doomsters were wrong, spectacularly.
And speaking of spectacularly wrong, the expert climate-change computer models predicted rapidly warming waters that the hurricane's path would traverse.
Instead, as the adjacent chart clearly documents, those ocean waters have cooled since 1940, not warmed as predicted. Another case of 'those stubborn facts'.
In summary, the empirical evidence again confirms that climate simulations and computer models are very suspect regarding their capabilities at both short and long-term predictions/forecasts. Governing elites, bureaucrats and the public should absolutely not base any expensive policy-making decisions on these research tools.
Government-funded climate science is not the only research field where "experts" make bogus claims, conduct fraudulent science and report only cherry-picked data.
It's recently been uncovered that young people are potentially 10 times more likely to be violent and/or suicidal if consuming prescribed antidepressant drugs.
Turns out the scientists who developed this class of drugs failed to mention that these medications would produce unwanted outcomes, and the peer-reviewed journals subsequently failed to warn the public regarding the bogus science.
"The new study, published in the journal BMJ, proves the long-suspected dangers of the drug also known as Paxil, Aropax, Extine and Paxtine. Study leader Jon Jureidini said it raised wider implications about the need for medical researchers to publish their underlying data — standard practice in genomics and astronomy, but rare in medicine."
Michael Mann's infamous 'hockey stick' graph, used by the IPCC "experts" as propaganda to convince gullible elites that modern warming was unprecedented, has had its science and respectability torn asunder by a multitude of experts over the years.
The graph's lack of both science creditability and statistical robustness eventually caused the UN's IPCC to throw in the towel and exclude it from future climate reports.
Climate research in recent years has confirmed that the hockey stick deserved the ash heap of bad paleo-science it now resides in.
This has again been proven in the latest study, which shows the non-existence of the 'hockey stick' and the rather similar (yet less) modern warming versus that of the Medieval Period. The study's summer temperature reconstruction is adjacent.
Other peer-reviewed articles.
Per NOAA, the U.S. warming pause (aka the 'Hiatus') has now achieved a 19-year stall (see adjacent chart). In fact, a slight cooling has been the trend over this period.
Remember the predicted global warming by experts? The same "experts" who predicted that hurricanes would become stronger and more frequent as a result of the global warming - which also did not happen.
As the empirical climate datasets reveal, the predicted global warming has amounted to about nil for close to two decades. And because of this, the global warming scientists recently resorted to exceptional fabrications of temperature datasets to produce "warming" that disappears the 'Pause'.
Ginning up climate change fears in anticipation of the Paris 2015 COP21 climate travesty show seems to be the driving force behind the most recent wholesale fake-warming production.
Back to the included chart. As depicted, the 19-year pause includes not only the continental U.S. (at -0.4°F per century cooling) but also the states of Virginia and Maryland, both at -0.5°F per century cooling.
Why depict those two state's temperature trends?
Because those states surround the metropolitan District of Columbia where federal bureaucrats, U.S. elected representatives and administration officials pontificate about the rapid and dangerous "global warming". These elites live and work in the D.C. micro-climate warming bubble that is a direct result of federal taxpayer asphalt, steel, concrete and airports with very hot jet exhausts, which in combination have produced a rapidly warming urban heat island (UHI).
The NOAA scientific empirical evidence is rather clear and undeniable. For most Americans, global warming is not an issue and is definitely not impacting their daily lives.
But for a minority of governing elites, who obviously created a hostile warming micro-climate for their work environment, it has made them incapable of distinguishing the climate forest from the micro-climate trees, so-to-speak. Or, put another way, they can't discern the difference between climate reality and climate fantasy.
Hmmm....maybe the best solution for saving the elites from their own, self-created hostile and climate change triggering environment is to disperse the federal government offices and personnel across rural locations throughout the U.S.
Note: The per century temperature trends for the continental U.S, Maryland, Virginia and D.C. were produced using NOAA's 12-month temperature periods ending in the month of August, through August 2015. Source of NOAA data used. NOAA images (a Zip file) of chart's calculated per century trends used.
The much embarrassing 'Pause' continues to ignore the predictions of the wrong-way IPCC and government-funded climate "scientists" - you know, the "experts" who have been long predicting end-of-the-world global warming since the late 80's.
The adjacent chart reflects poorly on the "consensus" science that unequivocally states the human CO2 emissions must first increase the lower troposphere temperatures in order to warm the Earth. This violation of the sacrosanct climate-agenda physics has become a real hiatus head-scratcher for scientists and journalists making a living off the govt-approved orthodoxy.
Despite 'those stubborn facts', the elites - i.e. bureaucrats and politicians - of the U.N. and national governments continue plans to party-in-Paris come late November, without any regard to actual climate reality. The political 'Agenda' and climate COP21 show must go on regardless of inconvenient evidence-based science.
Obama's own NOAA climate division reports that the empirical evidence documents clear and sustained cooling trends for both Alaska and the continental U.S. for the past 16 years.
Yet, when not too busy taking selfies near Alaskan glaciers, Obama spent time to prophesize about dangerous "global warming," thus exhibiting either a deep ignorance of real climate science and facts or an amazing dishonesty that journalists allowed him to get away with.
It's a sad state of affairs when a president is this badly out of touch with the evidence-based science that his own administration's science agencies are reporting.
NOAA's Alaska/US evidence also supports the global warming 'pause' that has proven to be a major embarrassment for those proponents of climate-doomsday angst.
Note: NOAA charts above based on 12-month periods ending July.
Global warming hysteria and fear-mongering, as expressed by the fringe green groups, progressive Democrats and the extremists of the Obama administration, are reaching a peak as November's Paris COP21 climate summit is approaching. But is the hysteria warranted?
Over and over again the public hears from UN and national government bureaucrats that global warming is rapidly becoming dangerous and accelerating faster than that experienced in the past due to human CO2 emissions. U.S. politicians of extreme left-wing persuasion seem to be especially enamored with over-the-top climate catastrophic predictions, which makes sense since they propose more taxes and regulations to control Americans and businesses and, of course, to "save-the-world," so they say.
Seriously, is the hysteria and draconian proposals to eliminate fossil fuels even close to being warranted? Should President Obama really be proposing that the U.S. follow unproven and potentially reckless energy and economic policies based on climate-cult doomsday prophecies?
Well, the adjacent chart provides 12 reasons why Obama's obsession and the hysteria of progressives are plainly absurd.
Look close - indeed there are at least 12 previous presidential terms that experienced global warming rates (a.k.a., acceleration) greater than anything experienced over the last 6.5 years of Obama's administration.
In fact, the majority of the greatest 5-year acceleration (i.e., the highest warming rates) took place prior to 1950 when CO2 emissions were a fraction of today's levels.
The politicos' global warming hysteria appears even more contrived and manipulative when examining acceleration using a moving 6.5 year average for the 5-year acceleration rates. On the chart, the black curve is the 6.5 year moving average since 1860.
(Why 6.5 years? Through June 2015, Obama's term in office covers 6.5 years - 78 months.)
Simply put, the black curve represents 1,868 datapoints for global warming acceleration, thus comparing Obama's length of term with those occupying the White House prior. Exactly 1,170 of the datapoints exceed the June 2015 datapoint of "rapid" warming that has so panicked this administration.
Needless to say, global warming from human CO2 emissions is an exceptional yawner, and is in no sense a current legitimate threat when viewed in the context of recent climate history.
That's a climate FactCheck and undeniable. And here's more proof that the current warming rate is unexceptional.
Note: Source of HadCRUT global temperature data. Excel was used to calculate 5-year slopes (Excel slope function) for each month; then used to produce moving 6.5 year averages of the 5-year slopes.
And John Cook of University of Queensland has again confirmed that Down Under academia has sketchy regard for ethics and morals. Here is a university that seems to condone fabrications and lies regarding science issues by hiring a person known for being truth-challenged.
Cook, who is also the proprietor of the 'Skeptical Science' web site, has now been exposed as literally posing in comments on certain blog postings as the famous theoretical physicist, Luboš Motl. Simply put, this is premeditated identity theft meant to deceive. This reprehensible behavior was done under the auspices of a Western Australia University's "scientific" experiment, prior to his Queensland employment.
On top of that, Cook's fake comments misrepresented Motl's views about climate science - in other words, Cook just made up lies stuff.
Certainly, global warming alarmists long ago jumped-the-Nazi, so to speak, which Cook's most recent bizarro revelations obviously confirm. Then there are the previous Cook episodes that expose the level of global warming alarmist "science" B.S. - see here, here, here and here.
Then there is the University of Western Australia's ethics debacle in approving shoddy science by university employees and Cook's associates. This is the same university of the climate-doomsday cult that then decided to double-down on their support of the cult.
Yikes! What's up with Australia, mates?
The earliest monthly global dataset that we have available from NASA is the one produced for the August 2005 reporting period. Overall, that dataset contains 1,508 monthly observations since the beginning of 1880.
It seems that under Obama, NASA has conducted a global warming fabrications corrections effort, especially focused on the most recent decades since the 1970's.
Specifically, when comparing the newly adjusted NASA dataset to the one reported in August 2005, out of the 308 months spanning January 1980 through August 2005, NASA has warmed 302 months (only 2 months were cooled and 6 were left unchanged from the 2005 dataset).
Of the total warming adjustments corrections applied to the 1980's, 1990's and 2000's (through Aug 2005) they average out to a bureaucrat-made warming increase of +0.08°C per month.....
===> that's equal to a 96°C per century warming trend if NASA continues with a pattern of similar "corrections."
This NASA non-random treatment and purposeful changes of past empirical evidence is beyond just being anti-science. It is fraud-like, with the root cause being attempts by bureaucrat-scientists to meet the political and propaganda agendas of government elites - agendas that have been blatantly obvious over recent years.
Prior to the upcoming, yawn-producing UN's 2015 Paris COP21 greenhouse gas fear-mongering conference, one could surmise that NASA was charged with creating global temperatures that were the hottest ever, regardless of the integrity and credibility damage that the science community and objective scientific methodologies would sustain.
NASA provides ample evidence why scientists, bureaucrats and political elites should be held in contempt by the public. Literally, their utterances should never be trusted on any issue that requires an objective, impartial scientific treatment.
'Never trust, only verify' should be the new motto for the public to take to heart.
Note: Spreadsheet with NASA GISS datasets: August 2005 & June 2015
From time to time, NOAA also exhibits the typical your-federal-govt-at-work "competence".
On their 'Climate-At-A-Glance' (CAG) web site, NOAA reports that the contiguous U.S. has been cooling at a rate of -0.6°F per century since January 1, 1994 (see pink rectangle on image). That's a 258-month period.
Surprise! Color me a skeptic.
Per the monthly absolute temperatures and anomalies that NOAA reports for the period from Jan 1994 to June 2015, there does not appear to be any obvious means to calculate a cooling trend. In fact, using the CAG supplied NOAA dataset for temperatures during that period, there is a warming trend of 1.68°F, calculated using Excel's slope function for a linear trend.
Indeed, from the same NOAA reported data, there is a U.S. cooling trend but it does not start until February 1996. Using either NOAA's reported 'Climate-At-A-Glance' absolutes or anomalies, that trend is a -2.28°F for the 19.4 year period (233 months).
The more recent reporting from NOAA is hardly an improvement - from 2010 thru June 2015 they are reporting a -44.33°F per century cooling trend. Ummm...I don't think so.
It's highly doubtful that NOAA will be on the airwaves anytime soon discussing a -44 degree cooling trend when they're required to scream "it's-the-hottest-ever" constantly.
Summary: "Ashville, we have a problem." Okay, is this a function of just a very poorly designed web page that simply misleads the public? Or, a reporting system with really bad quality control efforts? Or competence, maybe lack thereof? Or, a management team totally distracted by their political agenda priorities prior to Paris 2015? Or, yet another successful Chinese hack penetrating government "security"?
There is an anti-science political agenda that is driving governments to fabricate excess global warming that really does not exist.
When one listens carefully, the political agenda becomes obvious. And government-funded scientists certainly listen very carefully to their paymasters.
As a result, faux-science is pervasive.
Case in point: NOAA's bureaucracy "scientists" are seemingly dedicated to squeezing manufacturing new global warming from any and all past empirical measurements, every single month - literally.
Their quasi-religious green jihad against the historical climate records has just been well dissected and documented by Walter Dnes. The adjacent chart is his analysis, with some additions by 'C3' (bold green, red and cyan lines, chart text and title added to his original).
===> The 'C3' horizontal dark green line is placed at zero degree change; vertical red dashed lines represent the beginning of periods with extreme high frequency of warming adjustments; and cyan vertical dashed lines periods represent the beginning of periods with extreme high frequency of cooling adjustments.
As the chart depicts, from the 1880s thru the mid-1920s, the monthly temperature adjustments applied by NOAA appear to be somewhat random in regards to cooling and warming changes.
From approximately 1926 on though, NOAA's warming and cooling adjustments give all appearances of not being the least bit random, but specifically designed to make historically documented warming periods cooler (such as the extreme warming of 1930s) and the more recent warming of the last two decades - made to appear even greater than reported during real-time.
The most recent decades of non-random adjustments are clearly an attempt by agenda scientists to rid the NOAA global dataset of the very inconvenient and embarrassing 21st century 'pause', also called the 'hiatus.'
What many don't realize (i.e., politicians, policymakers and the public alike) is that NOAA adjusts the monthly historical climate records every single month. And within the next few days, NOAA will release a new historical dataset ending at June 2015, which will likely include some 80% of the monthly records back to 1880 being "adjusted" once again. And they will do the same for the July 2015 historical dataset.
The constant manipulation and adjusting of empirical measurements simply never ends - it's ad infinitum, déjà vu.
The global warming political agenda demands a convincing story, and the falsification is necessitated when nature does not cooperate with the global warming narrative.
Walter's article goes into much greater detail with many more charts - a definite read by those interested in faux-science perpetrated by govt types. But he has only dissected NOAA's fabrication adjustments from late 2010 and forward to the present. In reality, the fabrication of all temperature records started much earlier though, which can be seen here, here, here, here and here.
For the record, it's definitely not only the U.S. climate agencies that are knee-deep in the 'sɔıǝuɔǝ' cesspool of data falsification.
Note: For those wondering how 'science' was transformed to 'sɔıǝuɔǝ', it was created here.
Here's a chart that NOAA and other govt-funded global warming proponents are not about to advertise. Instead, rest assured, they will be cherry-picking the usual meme of hottest day or week or month or quarter and/or year to publicize.
But when longer periods are examined, those favored govt/media 'cherry-picks' start to look exceptionally lame in comparison.
For example, the NOAA web site produced this chart that allows analysis of average U.S. temperatures over 5-year periods (60-month periods). The chart starts in 1988 (5-years ending 1988) when NASA's chief global warming alarmist predicted (at a U.S. Senate hearing) that the U.S. would also suffer from the global warming trend with dire consequences.
As the chart reveals, the U.S. warmed thru June 1992; then cooled until end of June 1997; then significantly warmed thru June 2000; and has since experienced a cooling trend that stretches to June 30, 2015. Clarifying, from 2000-2015 covers a 16-year span, which indisputably shows a 'pause' in 5-year warming that NOAA correctly identifies as a cooling trend.
It's a cooling trend equaling 1.3°F per century. And not a single government sponsored climate expert, nor wildly expensive climate model, predicted such.
Note: Source of the NOAA average temperature chart. The chart plots 5-year average temperatures for the contiguous U.S. states starting with the 5 years ending June 1988 (July 1983- June1988).
The major proponents of climate doomsday alarmism claim that the growth of human CO2 emissions from fossil fuels is causing a rapid growth of dangerous atmospheric CO2 levels.
But does the scientific empirical evidence support that claim?
In climate reality, not only is it a false claim, it is at best anti-science propaganda.
This chart plots the percent growth of fossil fuel CO2 emissions versus the percent growth of atmospheric CO2 levels since 1966. As can be observed, the emissions growth is on a strong declining trend whereas the atmospheric CO2 continues on its modestly increasing growth trend.
The R2 between the two depicted annual growth rate plots is an embarrassingly low 0.02 (zero comes to mind for some reason), which reflects an overall large negative trend of CO2 emissions percentage growth versus a small positive percentage growth trend for atmospheric CO2.
Question: If actual CO2 emission growth is a weak causal factor in atmospheric CO2 growth, then how exactly can it be a strong cause of dangerous "accelerating" growth of global warming, per the dogmatic AGW hypothesis?
Oh, that's right, global warming is not accelerating.
Additional greenhouse gas charts.
Note: Source of CO2 annual CO2 emissions tonnes and source of CO2 atmospheric CO2 levels. Growth percent calculations and chart plots accomplished using Excel. Update: Annual growth percents plotted are calculated using prior year measurement as numerator and following year measurement as denominator. Another update: typo on chart corrected - thank you, Tom Nelson.
The dogmatic and conventional global warming hypothesis claims that this type of CO2 level growth will cause a dangerous increase of both atmospheric and surface temperatures, thus increasing atmospheric water vapor - i.e., humidity - leading to a positive feedback loop of non-stoppable accelerating global warming.
Clearly, as this chart of empirical evidence reveals, that has not happened. Atmospheric humidity has actually declined, while the atmosphere and ocean temperatures accelerate, decelerate and often develop cooling phases.
Unlike the monotonous, steady state, fast CO2 growth, the major climate measurements are highly variable, obviously unlinked to the CO2 input from humans.
However, per the evidence and the newest research, a case can be made that the non-acceleration and variability of global temperatures for the last 15+ years may have more to do with the 11-year cycles of sunspot activity not being as strong during recent solar peaks than the relentless CO2 growth.
Note: The dark purple, blue and red curves represent centered 37-month averages. The non-centered 37-month averages for CO2 (cyan dots) and RSS atmosphere temperature (green curve) were superimposed on the original chart found here.
Article: The establishment climate science experts have long pushed their favored policy of fossil fuel energy production being replaced by renewable energy sources. The indisputable result has been a literal green energy fiasco in many countries as political leaders fall all over themselves to make taxpayers massively subsidize the green energy projects of billionaires and powerful corporations.
Yet when informed high-tech analysis is applied to an objective review of renewable green energy, it becomes readily apparent that current renewable energy options are abject failures on all counts, including the goal of reducing global warming.
Article: The consensus quackery that medical dogma, experts, politicians and mainstream media have promulgated over 3 decades has proven to be a health disaster.
In America and other other industrialized countries, government bureaucrats and health research elites relying on non-validated science have essentially ruined the public's health with growing epidemics: obesity, diabetes and multiple related chronic diseases.
Similar to today's popular "consensus" obsession jihad science against CO2, the anti-fat and anti-cholesterol hypothesis of heart disease was embraced by all the right-thinking experts, special interest groups and politicos.
This was a mandated politically-correct consensus: fat and cholesterol were the enemy and needed to be eliminated - an enemy that turns out was never supported by the actual empirical evidence.
Now after 30+ years of literally wreaking havoc on the health of millions with bad medical science and absurd advice, the experts are finally being forced to admit they were stupendously wrong and skeptics were right.
In the meantime, people's lives have been shortened and healthcare costs have been increased by trillions due to an unbelievable surge of chronic diseases tied directly to government diet nutrition quackery.
But a tipping point has now been reached, with objective scientists and the public finally rejecting the quacks who remain possessed by the irrational fears of saturated fat and cholesterol.
And how much longer will it be before the public finally rejects the bureaucrat-science quacks and political/institutional/celebrity elites who continue to push the failed CO2-based anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis, whose real political agenda is not science related whatsoever.
Article: Current knowledge about ocean circulations (AMOC and others) and their variability are so unsettled that the most sophisticated and powerful climate models are completely unable to accurately forecast these gargantuan climate forces.
Ocean circulation is responsible for the immense global heat transport that affects every facet of world climate. And yet, the scientists remain perplexed as to the mechanics and intricacies of the entire system.
But what do the climate scientists know for sure? Well...that human CO2 emissions have absolutely nothing to do with this natural ocean circulation heat transport and weather system. That part is settled.
Article: This new study for the northern China Sea is just another recent example of empirical evidence supporting past research regarding the global warming experienced during both the Roman and Medieval periods.
And don't forget, that for a brief period, the IPCC's "consensus experts" attempted to claim that modern global warming was unprecedented. But that attempt failed miserably when it became obvious a mountain of peer-reviewed studies easily refuted the "unprecedented" claim.
The Pope's climate doomsday encyclical has generated a lot of controversy; and has probably doomed him to be eventually nominated for the Catholic 'hall of shame' for fear mongering anti-science.
Of course, it's not completely the Pope's fault for his ignorance. The Pope's gatekeepers and advisers can take much of the credit for making sure he did not hear about the actual climate science empirical evidence.
One climate doomsday scenario (among many) that continues to have no basis in climate science reality is the infamous prediction that Gaia will soon have a Venus-like atmosphere and boiling oceans...because of humans fossil fuel use. You can rest assured that Pope Francis was made aware of the potentiality of this fringe calamity.
It's a calamity that has long been pushed by the world's leading climate science alarmists.
NASA's former top climate expert, James Hansen, has been in the past a principal proponent of this particular doomsday prophecy. And of course, he provided the dramatic testimony to Congress in the summer of 1988 that really initiated the fear mongering in the U.S. regarding catastrophic global warming and climate change disasters - like turning Earth into Venus.
Unfortunately for the Pope, James Hansen and other hysterical climate doomsday soothsayers, the real world empirical evidence clearly shows that the world's climate is self-correcting and not prone to those scary predicted tipping points and runaway disasters from growing atmospheric CO2 levels.
Case in point: The Tropics (20S to 20N latitudes) - A Venus Doomsday?
The above chart plot reveals a tropical climate, as measured by satellites, experiencing a very slight cooling trend (blue curve) over the last 20 years. In contrast, the IPCC's latest climate model (CMIP5/RCP4.5) curve (green line) predicted a significant warming trend during that same 20-year period.
Going back even further, the red chart plot depicts an 83-month period of exceptional warming right after the Hansen testimony of 1988. In contrast, the IPCC climate models predicted a significant cooling trend for the Tropics for those 83 months - an abysmal failure, represented by a 7 degree trend difference between reality and prediction.
Needless to say, although we will, both the consensus climate experts and climate models have been spectacularly wrong in their doomsday projections for the Tropics, which means that human CO2 causing Venus-like conditions for Gaia has no basis in climate science reality.
It's unfortunate that this pope fell victim to his own gullibility and the anti-science machinations of his court jesters advisers. But there is good news for the Catholic masses: you can now also comfortably ignore this encyclical since it was produced from the irrational passion of fear versus the known rational, empirical climate science.
NOAA's latest U.S. temperature dataset reveals that over last 20 years (including 1996), May temperatures have been on a cooling trend: a -0.8°F/century trend.
In addition, the same dataset for 12-month periods ending May shows a cooling trend over 19 years. That trend is a -0.4°F/century.
Regardless if one refers to these climate temperature dynamics as a 'pause,' a 'stall,' a 'hiatus,' or a 'plateau,' it was not expected - no alarmist hypothesis or theory-based scenario predicted this outcome.
Note: Temperature trends are for the continental U.S. The official climate agency source of trends and chart.
It is well documented that global temperature acceleration has significantly paused since 1998, despite the global CO2 emissions growth rate easily exceeding the business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios presented by NASA's James Hansen way back in 1988.
Yet the UN's Paris2015 proposed deep cuts in "dangerous" global CO2 emission growth rates will only delay "climate doomsday" by a laughable 8 months. And that would be accompanied by a likely debilitating economic impact of trillions of dollars - mostly suffered by the world's poor and most vulnerable.
The chart on left plots the most up-to-date 15-year average growth rates of CO2 emissions versus the global economy 15-year average growth rates. Surprisingly, as the GDP growth rate declines, on average, CO2 emissions growth just continues.
With that pointed out, it's also pertinent to point out that over the last 15 years the U.S. total emissions have actually shrunk, as well as those of the EU. In contrast, CO2 emissions for other major world economic regions have robustly increased over the last 15 years.
Previous greenhouse-gas charts.
The past several days has seen much written about the new revision of the NOAA global temperature dataset - a revision that supposedly eliminates the global warming 'pause' or if you prefer, the 'hiatus'.
The revision has received withering scrutiny, with multiple significant criticisms being leveled. Clearly, as the critics point out, this revision is not based on any known physical science principles, nor on any new empirical evidence, but instead on a political agenda that demands "scientists" find more global warming, pronto, for the Paris 2015 climate elite bureaucrats hookup extravaganza.
By utilizing questionable adjustments based on even more questionable assumptions, NOAA managed to produce an entirely fabricated increase in the global warming trend from 1998 to 2012. Theirs is not a real global warming event, it is essentially nothing more than statistical flimflam.
Per the critics, several key failings include:
Relevant to that last point, is the above chart. It's a comparison of warming trends during the 15-year periods ending 2012 (see blue rectangles) and 1997 (see red circles).
Using climate agency temperature anomalies that were reported as of the end of 2012, one can clearly see the dramatic drop in global warming rates from the earlier 1983-1997 period versus the period ending 2012.
Did it still warm from 1998 to 2012?
Yes, it did. But it was at a fraction of the warming trend of the previous 15 years - a definitive slowdown versus the prior warming trend.
And as the chart reveals, the CMIP models (the RCP 4.5 scenarios) expected significantly more warming than observed during 1998-2012 period. Objectively, the models predicted an accelerating warming rate, which actually failed to happen, as the empirical evidence proves.
Because of this decline ('pause'?) in global warming trends, NOAA felt compelled to simply fabricate more warming in a rather feeble attempt to make global warming seem more of a existential threat that might even scare an anti-capitalism Pope into embarrassing fear-mongering.
Unfortunately for the "scientists" at NOAA, despite all their really lame statistical shenanigans, the revised NOAA temperature trend for the 15-year period ending 2012 is still a quite tepid 0.9°C per century - indeed, the descriptor 'lukewarm' readily comes to mind.
Article: From the science-is-never-settled department, a new study utilizing satellite technology measures Antarctica's albedo. It is found to be increasing overall, thus increasing the solar radiation reflected back into space. Ergo, there be climate cooling forces at work despite record atmospheric levels of CO2.
Recent peer-reviewed study headlines.
Article: The myth that modern global warming is "unprecedented" continues despite the overwhelming empirical evidence that debunks the myth. This study from China provides additional proof that natural climate change is a powerful driving force that produces warning phases without human intervention.
Article: Researchers analyze empirical evidence across 8 Korean cities. It is inescapable, cold extremes are much more dangerous for humans than heat waves. Cold waves boost admissions some 50% versus 5% for heat waves. From this peer-reviewed study, one can conclude that global warming will reduce the cold extremes, thus making it safer for human life.
Article: It's indisputably obvious - the attack on scientific honesty and credibility is taking place at the highest levels of government. The EPA pursues a blatant strategy of the 'ends-justify-the-means,' thus trashing the requisites of scientific methodology and integrity.
This followup article confirms the sanctioned malfeasance of promoting environmental regulations that can't pass any strenuous cost-benefit analysis.
As they say: "Trust No One".
Article: The EU's major industrial powerhouse is fast becoming a 90-pound weakling - sapped by the incredibly stupid energy policy known as Energiewende. The renewable fiasco has becomes so bad that German politics are severely split as to solutions, with the dominant solution being an increased reliance on CO2-producing coal energy.
As this chart depicts, energy prices for German consumers is on an exponential path skyward since the renewable polices were aggressively pursued.
Is Columbia University an ivory tower of mistruths, falsehoods, fakery, lies and pseudo science?
Multiple unflattering examples begs the question.
The outcome of this "scientific" art has been the reduction of public belief in global warming and climate change "crisis."
Adding a question mark to the university's scientific competence and reputation, the institution has recently been rocked by the infamous gay-marriage study. A study based on non-existent and/or fraudulent data, of which Columbia University's own Donald Green was forced to retract from Science, the esteemed peer-reviewed journal.
A warmup to the current junk science shenanigans took place a few years back. In 2001, there was the well publicized science scandal perpetrated by Columbia researchers claiming that prayer enhanced pregnancy outcomes - supposed "birth miracles" - were proven by the empirical evidence. It was a study published in the prestigious Journal of Reproductive Medicine, receiving wide-spread and prominent media coverage.
The end result of the birth-miracle study? Ultimately, a massive embarrassment for the university regarding its institutional capabilities (lack thereof?) of separating truth from falsehood - a serious shortcoming that appears to still plague the university.
And then there is the alleged rape claim by the student-artist known as the 'Mattress Girl' at Columbia University. These are allegations debunked by outside authorities, thus essentially consigning the rape charges to the ash heap of suspected art-fraud. Yet, at graduation Columbia allowed the tarnishing of the celebratory event for families by permitting this "artist's" fact-challenged allegations to be visually center stage.
Is it a House-of-Lies? Okay, that's likely too harsh of a condemnation, but be forewarned. Any future claims by those associated with Columbia University should now be automatically suspect - obviously, the university has yet to effectively clean its proverbial 'house' of fraud-like behavior, so to speak.
Note: Article that is source of image.
The establishment's health/medical/nutrition consensus science rivals the IPCC's anti-CO2 crusade climate science in terms of producing spectacularly wrong theories and the associated fact-less, terrible predictions.
The anti-fat/cholesterol heart disease theory has been a mainstay of medical dogma for decades. In recent years though, it has been torn asunder by actual real empirical science. This non-consensus science is finally coming to the forefront due to establishment-nutrition skeptics, not the goose-stepping health elites and their press release parrots, the mainstream media.
Article: The global warming, climate change alarmists have lost the scientific debate so badly that the NSF felt obligated to fund the development of a green propaganda manual to be used in their never ending fear-mongering campaign.
Article: NASA temperature records for Antarctica peninsula show no real warming since the late 1980s - a 'pause' that predates the global one, despite record levels of atmospheric CO2.
Article: Modern climate change and global warming not outside boundaries of natural variability.
Article: The green/left/progressive penchant for those extreme, scary climate change, anti-science predictions is never ending - as David Barber proves.
Article: Growth of regional South Pole sea ice is severely hampering resupply at research bases in Antarctica.
This peer-reviewed study confirms that extreme warming took place in China, at the approximate times that Europe was experiencing the warming of the Medieval and Minoan periods.
Unprecedented global warming over a vast swath of the world took place in antiquity.
It is accurate to conclude that natural climate change is a powerful force in terms of promoting significant temperature change regimes - simply, human CO2 emissions are not required to do so.
"Using multi-proxy records -- including data on pollen, charcoal, phytoliths, total nitrogen, total organic carbon and loss-on-ignition from a 268-cm-long sediment core...The six scientists report that one of what they call the "significant climate events during this period" was the Medieval Warm Period, which held sway from approximately AD 700-1200, and which they say "was also revealed at some other sites in Xinjiang,...which was about 1.3°C higher than what had been the case at any other time over the past 3,000 years"
Additional peer-reviewed studies.
It's another day and another stubborn climate fact: global sea ice is not melting as expected by the experts.
Unexpectedly for the IPCC and associates, the trend is flat, despite the greatest growth in human CO2 emissions ever recorded.
At this point, it would be safe to say that the empirical evidence confirms that past hysterical projections of a global sea ice meltdown by global warming alarmists were without true scientific merit, due to being based on an untested and weak hypothesis that humans would cause catastrophic climate change.
Damn those stubborn facts!
The new study examined 118 years of empirical evidence and discovered that small Pacific islands are not disappearing under the waves of a rising ocean. Instead, the tiny atoll islands are actually growing larger.
It's another climate change 'Ooopsie'.